There are five pictures that are absolute locks, and look no further than last night’s Golden Globe nominees for Best Drama (and let’s all hope, for the sake of movies in general, that the end result changes) to find the five frontrunners. First is Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds, which has an outside shot at winning it all, depending on how ferocious producer Harvey Weinstein gets down the road. Next is 
The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow’s Iraq war picture that should, for all intents and purposes, be the leader of the pack for picture and director. Then again, I thought that last night. Third on the list has to be (sigh) Avatar, James Cameron’s ho hum story shielded by amazing technological advances. If we were to judge on creativity, writing, and acting rather than box-office numbers, Avatar wouldn’t have a shot.
Rounding out the top five is Jason Reitman’s clever, timely Up in the Air and Lee Daniels’ rough domestic drama Precious. Both pictures are two of the best this year, but their chances of actually winning are slimmer than the aforementioned three. Up, Pixar’s fantastic animated picture should be the sixth entry. Which leaves about a dozen films vying to fill out the bottom four, the four with no shot at winning Best Picture. I feel like a couple of small films might find their way in these four, films like The Coen Brothers’ Jewish period drama, A Serious Man, or Tom Ford’s directorial debut, A Single Man (try and keep those straight 
in your head). While those small flicks are all well and good, who are we kidding? Adding five spots in this category is a shameless money grab, and I would not be surprised if another big-budget blockbuster like Star Trek – a fine Summer action picture that really doesn’t deserve to be there – found it’s way in the mix. Or how does this sound: Best Picture nominee, The Hangover? It could happen. Not that The Hangover isn’t a comedic gem, but come on.
Perhaps Where the Wild Things Are could make it, but I feel like it’s too divisive and polarizing. Then again, ten spots are a lot when the field thins considerably after the first five. Movies like (500) Days of Summer, The Road, and An Education all have a shot at filling out the category, but it’s anybody’s guess as to how the Academy will fill this out. Perhaps they should stop pretending that ten slots are there to celebrate the ten highest quality films of the year, take the box-office numbers of the pictures remaining, and fill out the category. It’s not like any of them will win anyway, so what if Transformers 2 is in the mix?PREDICTIONS:
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Precious
An Education
A Serious Man
A Single Man
The Road
Up
OTHER POSSIBILITIES:
Where the Wild Things Are
(500) Days of Summer
Star Trek
LONG SHOTS:
The Hangover
Nine
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
